1. Home page
  2. Search

SYSTEMS THEORY AND ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NON PHARMACEUTICAL POLICIES FOR THE MITIGATION OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

This item is provided by the institution :
/aggregator-openarchives/portal/institutions/uoa   

Repository :
Pergamos Digital Library   

see the original item page
in the repository's web site and access all digital files if the item*



SYSTEMS THEORY AND ANALYSIS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NON PHARMACEUTICAL POLICIES FOR THE MITIGATION OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Leventides, John Poulios, Costas Tsiatsios, Georgios Alkis and Livada, Maria Tsipras, Stavros Lefcaditis, Konstantinos and Sargenti, Panagiota Sargenti, Aleka
We utilize systems theory in the study of the implementation of non pharmaceutical strategies for the mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. We present two models. The first one is a model of predictive control with receding horizon and discontinuous actions of unknown costs for the implementation of adaptive triggering policies during the disease. This model is based on a periodic assessment of the peak of the pandemic (and, thus, of the health care demand) utilizing the latest data about the transmission and recovery rate of the disease. Consequently, the model seems to be suitable for discontinuous, non-mechanical (i.e. human) actions with unknown effectiveness, like those applied in the case of COVID-19. Secondly, we consider a feedback control problem in order to contain the pandemic at the capacity of the NHS (National Health System). As input parameter we consider the value p that reflects the intensity-effectiveness of the measures applied and as output the predicted maximum of infected people to be treated by NHS. The feedback control regulates p so that the number of infected people is manageable. Based on this approach, we address the following questions: (a) the limits of improvement of this approach; (b) the effectiveness of this approach; (c) the time horizon and timing of the application. (EN)
scientific_publication_article
Επιστημονική δημοσίευση - Άρθρο Περιοδικού (EL)
Scientific publication - Journal Article (EN)
University of Athens
Pergamos Digital Library
Journal Article
English
2021-01-01
uoadl:3029586
https://pergamos.lib.uoa.gr/uoa/dl/object/uoadl:3029586



*Institutions are responsible for keeping their URLs functional (digital file, item page in repository site)